Is Pokemon TCG: Mega Evolution: Pitch Black Worth It?

Is Pokemon TCG: Pitch Black Worth It?

• No for expected financial value.
• Pack EV: $3.40.
• Booster box EV: $122.52.
• Current box price: $188.67.
• Expected shortfall: $66.15.
• Buy singles for specific cards.
• Buy sealed only for the opening experience.

Pitch Black Set Snapshot

• Release date: July 17, 2026.
• Price snapshot: September 6, 2026.
• Snapshot timing: 52 days after release.
• Pack MSRP: $4.49.
• Current pack: $6.63.
• Box MSRP: $161.64.
• Current box: $188.67.
• Box premium: $27.03 above MSRP.
• Checklist: 84 main-set cards; 120 numbered cards.
• Pull-rate sample: More than 4,000 packs.

Pitch Black Product Prices and MSRP

• Market prices: September 6, 2026.
• MSRP source: TCGplayer seller guide.
• ETB EV includes guaranteed Zarude promos.
• Accessories receive $0 resale value.

Pitch Black Pack and Booster Box EV

• Central pack EV: $3.40.
• Central box EV: $122.52.
• Low box EV: $105.58.
• High box EV: $139.45.
• Current box price: $188.67.
• Even the high case loses to the current box price.
• This is gross opening value, not cash in your pocket.
• Fees, shipping, condition, and selling time are excluded.

Pitch Black Pull Rates

• TCGplayer opened more than 4,000 packs.
• Rates include 95% confidence intervals.
• Tier rates come from observed packs.
• Exact-card rates divide the tier by its card count.
• This uses TCGplayer's equal-population assumption.

• Mega Hyper Rare appeared at 0.09%.
• Its confidence margin was also 0.09%.
• Treat that rate as an estimate, not a factory guarantee.

Pitch Black Cards With Less Than a 1% Pull Rate

• Twenty-five exact cards fall below 1% per pack.
• 18 are Ultra Rares.
• 6 are Special Illustration Rares.
• 1 is a Mega Hyper Rare.
• Each row shows its exact EV contribution.

Special Illustration Rare and Mega Hyper Rare EV

Ultra Rare cards below 1% per pack

• Illustration Rares land at about 1.001% per card.
• TCGplayer rounds that rate to 1.00%.
• We treat Illustration Rares as the cutoff, not below it.

Pitch Black Chase Card Prices

Mega Darkrai ex116/084 · $199.28Shop this exact printing

Mega Darkrai ex120/084 · $159.75Shop this exact printing

Morpeko ex117/084 · $86.30Shop this exact printing

Mega Zeraora ex114/084 · $59.11Shop this exact printing

Mega Chandelure ex115/084 · $43.24Shop this exact printing

Gwynn119/084 · $34.36Shop this exact printing

Gladion's Final Battle118/084 · $28.01Shop this exact printing

Misty's Vitality111/084 · $15.81Shop this exact printing

Slowbro090/084 · $10.39Shop this exact printing

• Mega Darkrai ex 116/084: $199.28.
• Gold Mega Darkrai ex 120/084: $159.75.
• The rarer card is not the more expensive card.
• Rarity and market demand are different inputs.

Is a Pitch Black Booster Pack Worth It?

• Current price: $6.63.
• Expected card value: $3.40.
• Expected return: 51.3%.
• Worth it for a small opening experience.
• Not worth it as a repeatable value strategy.

Is a Pitch Black Booster Bundle Worth It?

• Current price: $39.73.
• Expected card value: $20.42.
• Cost per pack: $6.62.
• MSRP: $26.94.
• Worth considering near MSRP.
• Not worth it at the current market price.

Is a Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box Worth It?

• Regular ETB price: $70.30.
• Regular ETB card EV: $31.61.
• Pokemon Center ETB price: $124.21.
• Pokemon Center ETB singles EV: $65.96.
• Stamped Zarude promo: $27.54.
• Worth it if you value the accessories.
• Keep the Pokemon Center ETB sealed for collector value.
• Do not open either ETB for expected profit.

Is a Pitch Black Booster Box Worth It?

• Current price: $188.67.
• Cost per pack: $5.24.
• Central box EV: $122.52.
• High box EV: $139.45.
• Chance of any Special Illustration Rare: 36.4%.
• Chance of one specific Special Illustration Rare: 7.2%.
• Chance of the gold Mega Hyper Rare: 3.2%.
• Best tracked price per pack.
• Still not worth it for expected value.

Is Pitch Black Worth It for Players?

• Yes for singles.
• No for sealed deckbuilding.
• Mega Darkrai ex has a sub-$1 Double Rare.
• Mega Chandelure ex has a sub-$1 Double Rare.
• Alternate arts play the same.
• Buy the exact cards your deck needs.

Pitch Black EV Method and Limitations

• Price pool: 120 numbered cards.
• Sealed pool: 23 products.
• TCGCSV group: 24688.
• Rarity EV = pull rate × average tier price.
• Specific-card odds assume equal tier distribution.
• Each pack uses four Common slots.
• Each pack uses three Uncommon slots.
• Each pack uses two reverse slots.
• Each pack uses one Holo Rare-or-better slot.
• Illustration Rares replace the second reverse slot.
• Double Rares and higher replace the Holo Rare slot.
• Basic Energy and code cards receive $0 value.
• Low and high cases use the published rate endpoints.
• Market Price is not a guaranteed sale price.

Pitch Black Guide Sources

• Pokemon: Pitch Black product showcase
• Pokemon: Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box contents
• TCGplayer: Pitch Black pull rates from more than 4,000 packs
• TCGCSV: daily TCGplayer product and market-price export
• TCGCSV documentation
• TCGplayer seller guide: Pitch Black MSRP and product facts
• Pokemon: Pitch Black Battle Pass deck strategies
• Affiliate disclosure: TCG Spikes may earn a commission.
• Card art belongs to its rights holders.